Monk~koknee 12:08 Mon Sep 21
Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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http://statsbomb.com/2015/09/are-west-ham-or-leicester-any-good/?
"The thirteen goals are a product of a mere twenty-two shots on target- 59%, which give or take is double the league average and a full 14% ahead of Leicester, who as we discovered moments ago are running extremely hot. West Ham are transcending heat with a rate this high."
"....the opposition are taking a ton of shots but only converting them at 7%, and the overall save percentage is a high 78%. It’s flowing right for West Ham at both ends. The problem being that these metrics have been shown not to sustain. West Ham’s underlying metrics have powered a freak run, will definitely decline and this is likely to be as good as it gets for them."
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Replies - In Chronological Order ( Show Newest Messages First)
charleyfarley
12:10 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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Respect the metric
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Alex V
12:10 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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Ah I was just about to post about this. I'm glad you've done it so you can take the inevitable shoeing.
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wrighty
12:11 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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You lot would love us not to sustain this too.
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Pancho
12:11 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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Does anyone actually believe it would continue?
It's an amazing spell. But there will be the lull - of course there will.
Fucking merchants of doom.
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sidneyshitcunt
12:11 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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I wonder why "Statto" from Fantasy Football League always wore a dressing gown.
A bit like Jimmy Savile always smoking a cigar..
Or Rolf Harris having a catchphrase "can you tell what it is yet"..
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Alex V
12:12 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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As I posted on the article, I don't think a high PDO means necessarily that we can't continue winning, only that in games where we don't score early it is up to us to find a different way to win.
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Monk~koknee
12:12 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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Ha ha! I'm not saying that I go along with it - I'd have to learn to understand it first.
I simply put it out there for the learned folks to consider.
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stewie griffin
12:12 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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Are these the same statistical geniuses who predicted that Aston Villa would score a total of 13 goals last season?
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Monk~koknee
12:16 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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I guess they are just predictions based on statistical averaging.
Maybe the assumptions are flawed. What is better an attempt that beats the keeper but just passes the post (off target) or one that trickles along the ground to keeper (on target)?
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Lee Trundle
12:18 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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HOT and HEAT are the buzz words for this season's STATS, so far.
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Far Cough
12:20 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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Did anyone think we were going to sustain our bunch of red cards this season?
No, statistics are shit
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MrTrentReznor
12:20 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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Stats can be quite misleading.
I would expect that in away fixtures vs Arsenal, Liverpool & Man City where we took an early lead in every game that the home team would subsequently have a lot of shots on goal.
Also as we held 2 goal leads at one stage in each of those games the need for us to take more shots is lessened. Man UTD have scored with their last 6 shots (on target or in total- I don't know which). Will some Statto say that's unsustainable. I would hazard a guess that we had more shots than the opposition in the home defeats to Leicester & Bournemouth as they took an early lead in both games.
The key is scoring 1st. Obviously.
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Hermit Road
12:21 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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I for one thought that we would maintain this form and win the league. This has come as a complete shock to me.
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Your mum
12:22 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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That report doesn't reflect the players being used, old West Ham took the same amount of shots with Carlton Cole & Nolan, new West Ham have 6-7 higher calibre players in the team.
It also doesn't reflect us playing rope a dope away to Pool, Arse & City.
But yes, the run won't last for ever.
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WHOicidal Maniac
12:26 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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Stats are only useful in hindsight and for making an utter tool of yourself in the future...nothing else
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Mr Anon
12:30 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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How does this tally up with the adage "sign of a good team is one playing not particularly well and winning"
You can't "moneyball" football, it's too fluid- all this tells us us we wouldn't sustain it if we played the same opposition every week, where is the factoring that we played three top teams away from home?
Garbage, and Alex V, I'm surprised you didn't mention this considering you always search for the flip side.
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Russ of the BML
12:33 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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MrTrentReznor 12:20 Mon Sep 21
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Monk~koknee
12:37 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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There was certainly no negative intent from my posting it.
Seems like an interesting topic (although I realise it doesn't contain mulims).
We are statistical outliers for both shots to goals scored and shots to goals conceded. Is this because of something we are doing well on the pitch or have we been very lucky?
Try not to be defensive about it.
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Lily Hammer
12:37 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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So what if the stats say that this kind of thing doesn't usually continue for long. The stats also say we don't win away to Liverpool.
Trends are there to be bucked.
This mob of bean counters can buck off.
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Alex V
12:37 Mon Sep 21
Re: Statto Alert - West Ham success not sustainable
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>>> You can't "moneyball" football, it's too fluid
In my opinion it's very likely that a bunch of clubs are 'moneyballing' football, although I suppose it depends what you mean by the term. It's obviously a very secretive industry that doesn't promote it's own methods.
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